Wednesday, May 27, 2009

It’s not black and white (or David & Goliath).

Microsoft just announced the next entry in the Zune music player line – the Zune HD. Response in the blogosphere has been mixed – lots of excitement over its HighDef video and curiosity about its inclusion of HD Radio.

On the other side, people like Guy Kawasaki keep comparing every music player, including this one, with the iPod or iPod Touch. Others have gone as far as to declare that it’s DOA – again based on the idea that it’s not an “iPod-Killer’.

I think that these approaches are short-sighted – I don’t think anyone, even the folks over at Microsoft, really expect any player to take the market away from Apple any time soon. Apple made the digital music player market, and for a large segment of the population, one that is content with purchasing downloaded music one track at a time, it’ll take a lot more than an evolutionary competing player to get them to switch away, if only because conversion of music from one format to another is annoying, and until the music companies decide to allow license transfer from one vendor to another (so you only have to buy a track once & then can download it from any vendor that offers it), changing formats is going to be painful.

For me, the iPod model is a non-starter. I’m a subscription kind of guy. If it wasn’t for the Zune Pass, I’d never download a single thing –it’s only because there’s no downside to downloading an album that I thought might be interesting that I ever hear anything new. I’m personally hoping that Zune video will eventually include some kind of ability to download/stream Netflix like my XBOX 360 Gold subscription does.

I think there’s enough people like me that choose subscriptions over purchases to mean that Zune players – and certainly the Zune service – will have a market for a long time.

What do you think?

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